The Ministry of Education in Asia has highlighted that recklessness during gameplay may lead to substantial wins in Baccarat.
- Jamieson
- May 27, 2022
- 3 min read

This extensive study, conducted by five researchers from Kyoto universities, discovered that players tend to exhibit a more reckless attitude towards gambling following consecutive victories. The analysis utilized anonymous player data and received funding from Sega Sammy Holdings Inc., which is an investor in Paradise City. Furthermore, the South Korean casino conglomerate, Paradise Co Ltd, also supports this resort.
Sega Sammy, an entertainment giant listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, has expressed its desire to become a private equity partner in Yokohama as the city progresses with its plans for an integrated resort, also known as an 'IR.' Due to the ongoing discussions surrounding gambling addiction, this topic has become a significant concern among Japanese lawmakers and the public. Japan aims to establish up to three casino resorts. Early in the market's liberalization, issues regarding problem gambling stemmed from unpredictable and risky betting patterns that fluctuate based on the games' outcomes. The study's authors remarked on the importance of tracking the history of these outcomes in games of chance.
The research document, recognized as the first attempt to analyze a vast dataset related to baccarat gambling, examined over 7.9 million baccarat games involving 3,986 players. This work was recently published in the International Gambling Studies journal and aimed to explore how betting amounts and hand odds change based on consecutive wins or losses.
According to the document: 'Trends observed in winning behaviors can be interpreted variations of the 'hot hand fallacy' similar to those seen in basketball shooting, where irrational beliefs may lead to misjudging random outcomes.
The researchers pointed out that the frequency of placing multiple bets, especially those known as 'long shots', diminishes after a loss, but increases following a win.
In baccarat, Japanese and Chinese players find that a 'Tie' bet offers an advantage over a 'House' bet, even more so than 'Player' or 'Banker' bets. Some variations of baccarat provide 'Proposition' bets, which promise high payouts but come with long odds, according to the researchers. The study indicated that the average age of the participants was approximately 46.4 years, with a majority being male. Notably, around 40% of the players were Japanese, with an equal percentage identifying as Chinese.
This analysis suggests that the average player in this group can be characterized as a middle-aged man from Asia, according to the author.
This research seems to validate a viewpoint held by some critics about casino operations. There's a notion that Asian players often 'chase' their losses, resulting in them placing additional or expedited bets after a defeat, under the impression that 'luck' is on their side.
The study's authors observed that players typically wager more after a loss compared to after a win, especially when the length of a losing streak is relatively short, although this amount is less than what follows a winning streak. They noted that betting increases after a series of losses, despite a decrease in the number of multiple bets placed. This behavior is often interpreted as an attempt to 'chase' losses—placing larger wagers to make up for previous losses. Critics of casinos often advocate that players neglect the aspect of losing altogether, as many Asian players search for patterns or trends in the outcomes during baccarat. The study, however, did not specifically delve into this notion.